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A bettor named “Fredi9999” has wagered over $20 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 U.S. presidential election on Polymarket, causing concern about market manipulation. The large bet has allegedly increased Trump’s winning odds to 60.2% according to the site, despite little political news to explain the rise. There are suspicions that “Fredi9999” controls the top four Trump accounts on Polymarket. On other betting sites, Trump’s odds range from 57% to 58.8%. Alex Momot of Peanut Trade worries about the impact on electoral perception if Polymarket’s influence grows.

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People are getting worried about how big bettors might be messing around with Polymarket – a place to bet on stuff online.

Here’s the problem: a big-time bettor named “Fredi9999,” has bet over $20 million on Donald Trump winning the 2024 presidential election. This has helped increase Trump’s chances of winning, at least according to Polymarket. A couple of days back, Cointelegraph had reported Trump’s odds of winning was up to a record 60.2%.

People are a bit confused about why Trump’s odds are so high, as nothing much has been happening off late to explain such a jump, says Alex Momot, founder of Peanut Trade. He feels that how Polymarket is doing could sway how people see who could become the next US President.

The closer we’re getting to Election Day, the more important it has become to make sure no one is playing dirty.

But who exactly is this “Fredi9999?” He’s been messing with Trump’s price on Polymarket pretty significantly, says someone who bets a lot on politics anonymously, known as Domer. They think that Fredi might be controlling the top four Trump accounts on Polymarket.

These accounts apparently got deposits of $1 million or $500,000, which is leading some people to suspect that this money is being cleverly used to raise Trump’s odds.

Domer thinks this guy, Fredi, is probably just a big Trump fan with loads of money, who’s trying to make a bet. They also feel he’s becoming more confident as Trump’s price goes higher.

And what about Polymarket – how reliable is it? If Polymarket’s influence keeps growing, we might have to worry more about people trying to game the system with their money, says Momot.

However, Elon Musk thinks these online prediction markets could be better at guessing election results than old-school polling methods. And he is cheering on Trump these days.

Meanwhile, Trump’s chances of winning also seem to be on the rise in more traditional betting places, although not as much as on Polymarket. Trump’s odds are at 60.7% on Polymarket as of Oct. 18 at 11:19 am.

On other betting websites, like Betfair, Kalshi, Predictit and Smarkets, Trump’s odds vary between 57% to 58.8%.

If we take the betting odds from all these top websites, Trump’s odds of winning are around 58.1%, while Kamala Harris’ odds are at 40.4%, according to data from RealClearPolling.

Source: Cointelegraph