30s Summary

The majority of voters in favor of Donald Trump on the primary betting market have come from a select few big bettors. Over half of the votes for Trump have reportedly been bought by five high-rolling gamblers, who could make $81 million if he wins the election. The five largest stakes in Kamala Harris represent only 18% of the total votes for her. As we near the US election, Bitcoin’s price has fluctuated, with some experts attributing the movement to a possible Trump victory.

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The largest number of votes in favor of Donald Trump on the major prediction market largely come from a handful of unidentified big bettors. These high-roller gambling enthusiasts, with their multi-million dollar bets, are trying to anticipate the outcome of the upcoming elections in the US.

A political gambling enthusiast called Domer claims that more than half of the Trump votes have been purchased by five big-time bettors. If Trump does win, these big bettors could rake in an impressive $81 million, Domer mentioned in a post.

Understand this: five accounts possess 50% of the total shares in favor of Trump – one of them alone holding roughly a third. If Trump triumphs, the five bettors get to pocket $81 million.

On the flip side, bettors’ support for Vice President Kamala Harris is more spread out. The five largest stakeholders hold 18% of the votes affirming a win for Harris. The stakeholder with the largest share in a potential Harris win controls only 4.4% of the votes. In comparison, Trump’s biggest backer holds a massive 29.1% share.

Let’s not forget the US presidential election is round the corner and a hot topic in the crypto folks’ discussions because it might shape their industry’s regulations for the following four years.

A couple of the top six Trump bettors – “zxgngl” and “Fredi9999” – might be under the control of the same entity, presumably a staunch Trump believer with deep pockets. Their confidence just keeps growing as Trump’s price rises, creating a loop powered by their own biases which just amplifies their faith in a Trump win, according to Domer.

Despite some inconsistency last week, Trump is still leading in Polymarket – the primary decentralized online gambling market – with a 56.9% possibility of a presidential victory, as compared to Harris’ 43%. However, other betting sites like Kalshi say the gap isn’t so large, with 54% of bettors predicting a Trump win and 46% supporting Harris.

Conventional polling methods tell another story altogether. Harris is expected to win with a 49% chance, compared to Trump’s 48%, as per The New York Times’ national polling average.

Elon Musk – everyone knows the guy – has said these prediction markets might be giving more accurate forecasts than traditional polling methods, as people put their own hard-earned money on the line. Suddenly Trump’s odds seemed better, and Polymarket flipped in Trump’s favor on Oct. 4. Trump even had a 10 points lead by Oct. 12.

The betting odds in Polymarket have been quite bumpy. And with Harris getting ahead in traditional polls, some are cashing in their bets. This, according to financial analyst Valentin Fournier, has resulted in Bitcoin’s recent dip in value. He warns that any profit-taking now might affect Bitcoin’s growth potential, especially if Trump (known for his soft spot for cryptocurrencies) loses the race to the White House.

There are pretty different takes on Bitcoin’s October price movements by several experts. Some attribute the rise in value to a perceived Trump victory, likened to a “Trump pump.” The price of Bitcoin was at its highest since March 2024 on Oct. 29. Others, however, think the Bitcoin boom was merely a “Trump hedge” bet, hinting that it might not lead to a record breaking high after the elections on Nov. 5.