30s Summary

Democratic nominee Kamala Harris is closing in on President Trump in betting platform Polymarket, with her shares jumping from 33 cents to over 44 cents before voting day. Meanwhile, Trump’s shares decreased from 66 cents to 55 cents. The surge in Harris’s odds may reflect strategic hedging, with large holders selling off shares amidst high demand. Political bettor Domer suggested Harris has a 55-60% chance of winning. However, Real Clear Polling puts Trump in a slight lead.

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Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, is closing in on the lead of her Republican opponent Donald Trump on the betting platform Polymarket. The platform continues to show a considerable lead for Trump, in comparison with polls. Polymarket is a platform where users trade ‘shares’ in the outcome of any predicted result. If the prediction occurs, the trader wins USDC 1 per share. For example, if a ‘Yes’ share for an event costs $0.60, then the market interprets this as a 60% chance of the event happening.

Before voting day, shares for Harris winning the election jumped to over 44 cents, from 33 cents on October 30. On the other hand, Trump’s shares fell from 66 cents to 55 cents during the same period. However, Real Clear Polling gives Trump a razor-thin lead at 48.5-48.4%.

Over the weekend, bets of more than $10,000 and $100,000 increased to above-average activity. The Harris odds increase might be due to more strategic hedging. Large holders of the ‘Yes’ shares for both Trump and Harris have been selling off their shares amidst high demand, possibly taking profits from the share price increase in the past few months.

Various market observers believed the surge in Harris’s odds reflects traders hedging their bets who have also predicted a victory for Trump. A renowned political bettor identified as Domer suggested that Harris has a 55-60% chance of winning the presidency, considering various polls and voter behavior trends.