30s Summary
Crypto “whales” are betting big on Donald Trump’s success in the 2024 US election, according to prediction market Polymarket. The top bettor has won over $20.4m on pro-Trump bets. In October, 10 big bettors wagered a combined $70.6m in USDC cryptocurrency on Trump. Shares betting on Vice President Kamala Harris are more spread out, with the top five only holding 18% of her “Yes” votes. Elon Musk has suggested that such prediction markets may be more accurate than traditional polling.
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Big spenders, also known as “crypto whales”, have made a pretty penny by wagering on Donald Trump’s success in a top prediction market online.
The top Trump backer on Polymarket, who goes by “Theo4,” scored more than $20.4 million off their pro-Trump bets, as per the data shared by Lookonchain on Nov. 6.
A couple of other large-scale bettors also made their bucks. “Fredi9999” made more than $15.6 million, while “zxgngl,” took home over $11 million.
In October, 10 of these big bettors spent a combined $70.6 million in USDC cryptocurrency, all betting on Trump winning the 2024 US election.
On Oct. 18, Fredi9999 even pushed Trump’s odds above 60.2% by buying over $20 million worth of “Yes” shares. Later, on Oct. 28, those odds increased to 66%, after zxgngl bet $7.22 million on “Yes” shares.
Given these big bets and Trump’s predicted victory, a big payday could be just around the corner for these Polymarket bettors.
As for who controls Trump’s “Yes” votes on Polymarket, five mysterious heavy bettors held over half of them just a day before the election. This could mean a payday that goes over $81 million, as shared by the anonymous political bettor named Domer.
On the other hand, shares betting on Vice President Kamala Harris winning are more spread out, with the top five only holding 18% of her “Yes” votes.
At least four of the top six bettors betting on Trump are believed to be controlled by one entity that is highly confident in a Trump victory.
Finally, it’s noteworthy to mention that prediction markets like this might be more accurate than traditional polling systems, because people are voting with their own savings. That’s a theory proposed by none other than Elon Musk.