30s Summary

Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, is expanding wager opportunities on US political events following high activity levels in the recent presidential election. New bets include possibilities for Trump’s cabinet choices and impeachment. During the election, betting activity peaked at nearly $4 billion, predominantly on the Polymarket platform, but Kalshi also gained traction after launching political event contracts. Kalshi’s main market reached over $250m in trading volume, and began accepting USD Coin to draw in crypto users. In addition, betting on foreign elections in Canada and Ireland is now available. Despite critique from the CFTC, industry analysts believe these platforms offer a more precise impression of public sentiment than traditional polls.

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Kalshi, the prediction marketplace, is opening up more opportunities for people to place wagers on US political outcomes, showing a desire to keep people interested following the recent Nov. 5 presidential election.

The new betting scenarios include who President-elect Donald Trump might choose for his administration, right through to the possibilities of him being impeached, according to documents filed with the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).

Ahead of the US election, there was a huge surge in political betting activity, with amounts related to the presidential race reaching nearly $4 billion on voting day, Nov. 5, as per a Cointelegraph analysis.

The lion’s share of this betting frenzy took place on the Web3-native Polymarket platform, which reportedly saw a whopping $3.3 billion in presidential betting volume. However, Kalshi, an American-based derivatives exchange, also gained popularity fast after it surprisingly launched political event contracts on Oct. 7.

By Nov. 5, Kalshi’s main market for US presidential election betting had reached over $250 million in trading volume. The platform also started accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a well-liked stablecoin, since Oct. 28, in an attempt to attract digital currency users.

Besides US political outcomes, Kalshi has added contracts that allow for betting on elections in other countries, including races in Canada and Ireland set for 2025, according to CFTC filings.

In what marked a major victory for election prediction markets, Kalshi won a lawsuit against the CFTC in September, overturning the regulator’s decision to prevent the exchange from listing political event contracts. This groundbreaking win essentially opened the door for other platforms to enter the game.

Following suit, Robinhood, a cryptocurrency and stock trading platform, and Interactive Brokers, introduced contracts for specially selected users to place wagers on the presidential election’s outcome in October.

While the CFTC criticizes this development, asserting that prediction markets like Kalshi could jeopardize the integrity of elections, industry analysts argue they often provide a more accurate reflection of public opinion than traditional polls.

Such betting platforms, including Kalshi, consistently predicted favorable odds for a Trump win. On Kalshi, Trump’s chances of winning were around 58% on Nov. 5 before the polls closed. The election results were announced the next day when Harris conceded the presidency to Trump.