30s Summary
BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes warns that crypto enthusiasts may be overly optimistic about what Donald Trump’s potential presidency might bring to the crypto space in 2025. Hayes plans to scale back some investments in his fund Maelstrom, expecting a steep drop in the market once people realize changes won’t come immediately. Despite a huge surge in Bitcoin after Trump’s announcement, Hayes predicts a sell-off surrounding inauguration day, before a market rebound later in the year.
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Lots of people are saying that when Trump becomes president again in January 2025, it’ll be a big win for cryptocurrency. Not everyone agrees though – Arthur Hayes, who co-founded BitMEX, thinks differently.
Hayes warns people not to get too excited. He points out that just because Trump said he’d change some crypto policies, doesn’t mean it’s going to happen overnight.
In a blog post, Hayes shared that his investment fund, Maelstrom, is planning to scale back on some investments early on, hoping to buy them back at a lower price later in 2025. He doesn’t believe that countries like the US will be stockpiling Bitcoin anytime soon.
According to Hayes, people are overly optimistic about what Trump can do. Just because he’s back in office, doesn’t mean he’ll be able to quickly fix economic and political issues. Turning his promises into reality might take much longer than people expect.
Hayes predicts a steep drop in crypto and other market trades related to Trump’s policies when people realize change won’t happen as fast as they thought. He reckons there’s a big sell-off coming around inauguration day before the markets start picking up again later in 2025.
For this reason, Maelstrom plans to sell off some investments early on, expecting to buy them back when the price drops. Hayes explains this by pointing out that long-term investors aren’t investing enough now, while lots of eager crypto enthusiasts often sell too soon.
The bitcoin market saw a huge uptick after Trump’s election win. Bitcoin even surged past $100,000 for the first time ever in December.
Many experts believe Trump’s policy changes will help Bitcoin and other digital currencies become more mainstream. Matrixport, a crypto platform based in Singapore, expects Bitcoin to have a strong start in 2025. But Hayes is not alone thinking there may be a downturn in early 2025. Rumor has it that MicroStrategy might freeze its Bitcoin buys in January, which could affect the market.