30s Summary

Bitcoin has experienced three consecutive days of losses for the first time since November. Crypto trading expert Captain Faibik believes the downturn, a result of a bearish divergence, is nearing its end. Contrarily, anonymous trader Cold Blooded Shiller suggests that Bitcoin’s value could drop to $85,000. Increased selling activity, particularly on Coinbase, and significant realized losses have characterized the recent slump. Despite a bearish break in structure, if Bitcoin can maintain at or above $95,000, there are signs of a potential turnaround.

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For the first time since early November – around when Donald Trump won the US election – Bitcoin’s daily chart has shown three straight days of losses. Interestingly, the last time this happened, Bitcoin had another go at the 50-day EMA level.

Bitcoin’s price has taken quite a tumble lately, falling by over 15% from its peak. But don’t worry, this dip could be mostly over, says one analysis expert.

Captain Faibik, a bigwig in the world of independent crypto trading, reckons Bitcoin’s price fall is nearing its end. On a recent post, Faibik explained this downturn is likely due to a big bearish divergence – this is when Bitcoin’s price and its relative strength index (RSI) have been going in opposite directions for the past month. Don’t get too spooked though. These divergences usually result in an 8% to 10% drop – a “healthy reset,” if you will.

Faibik predicts that the price should start going up from around $94,000. Not everyone agrees, though. Cold Blooded Shiller, a crypto trader who prefers to remain anonymous, reckons Bitcoin might take an even bigger hit. Shiller compared Bitcoin’s current price activity to what it looked like back in January 2024 and suggested that if a similar outcome happens, Bitcoin’s sell-off could dip as low as $85,000.

Meanwhile, a futures market analyst known as Byzantine General noticed spot holders were selling a lot. Maartunn, an analyst from CryptoQuant, noted that this is the most significant selling activity Coinbase has seen since Bitcoin was priced at $66,000. The selling pressure is so “relentless” that the Coinbase premium dropped to a quarterly low.

As the selling keeps ramping up, the volume of realized losses has peaked above its weekly average. Bitcoin onchain analyst Axel Adler Jr. pointed out that over the last five days, Bitcoin’s realized losses hit $28.9 million – that’s 320% above the weekly average for 2024! This $28 million mark has been crossed only ten times this year.

If you look at Bitcoin’s mid-term chart, you’ll see a bearish break of structure (BOS). But it’s not all doom and gloom. If Bitcoin continues to close a daily candle above $95,000, there’s a clear indication that things could turn around.

As seen in the chart, the 4-hour candle bounced back above $95,000 after dropping to $92,777. So, to shake off the bearish vibes, Bitcoin closing a daily candle above $95,000 would be a good sign.