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Bitcoin’s recent surge may be linked to Donald Trump’s chances of winning the upcoming US presidential elections. The cryptocurrency peaked at nearly $73,600 in October as Trump’s winning odds rose above 66%. Crypto analyst “The Giver” suggests the price indicates forecasts of a Trump win. However, the price surge may not continue post-election due to broader macroeconomic factors like Quantitative Easing, despite some analysts predicting a rise to $80,000 before the end of 2024. The election outcome could also impact crypto regulations and market movements till 2028.

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The recent increase in Bitcoin’s value might be linked to bets on Donald Trump winning the presidential race, and could possibly lead to a price drop after the election results are announced.

On Oct. 29, the Bitcoin price broke $73,600, just $200 short of an all-time record, marking the highest it has been since March 2024.

Just because Bitcoin’s value seems to go up as Trump’s chances of winning increase, it doesn’t necessarily mean that the increase will continue after the election. A crypto analyst using the pseudonym “The Giver” suggests that Bitcoin’s price is being used to forecast the outcome of a Trump win, rather than being directly influenced by it.

With the US presidential election on Nov. 5 looming large, this event has become a focus point for cryptocurrency investors. The result could affect future crypto regulations and market movements until 2028.

In October, Bitcoin’s value hike has seemed to play along with Trump’s increasing odds of winning the election in the world’s leading decentralized predictions market, Polymarket. As Trump’s odds rose to a record high of 60.2%, Bitcoin’s price reached a two-and-a-half-month high of over $68,200. Similarly, Bitcoin broke $70,000 for the first time since June as Trump’s chances of winning rose over 66.3%.

Nevertheless, this doesn’t mean Trump’s growing odds are pushing Bitcoin’s price up. The Giver maintains that this reflects a belief in a Trump victory that has been previously undervalued.

Despite Bitcoin’s positive price evolution, present macroeconomic conditions may not be sufficient for a post-election all-time high. Moreover, other popular indicators suggest price suppression rather than price discovery.

Most notably, the practice of central banks injecting liquidity into their economies by buying up government bonds, known as Quantitative Easing, usually raises Bitcoin’s value by pushing investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets.

However, not all are pessimistic about Bitcoin’s chances post-election. Analysts at Bitfinex predict a Bitcoin increase to $80,000 before the end of 2024, motivated by the structure of the options market and the potential of a Republican presidential victory.

Source: Cointelegraph