30s Summary

The Bitcoin bull run isn’t showing signs of slowing, with predictions of reaching $146,000. Research by CryptoQuant shows new Bitcoin holders own less than previous cycles, potentially due to lower activity from retail buyers. Larger investors are increasing holdings instead, indicated by a record $3.1 billion spent on Bitcoin by ETFs. While a correction of 30% might be needed for Bitcoin to hit a six-figure price, CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator remains in the bullish zone. From a realised price valuation perspective, $146,000 is Bitcoin’s current price target, indicating room for growth.

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Looks like the Bitcoin bull run isn’t slowing down any time soon and is potentially going to hit new highs. There are none of the typical signals that the price is about to drop dramatically, and some experts think we could see it reach $146,000 in this run.

According to a report from research company CryptoQuant on November 27, new Bitcoin holders aren’t holding as much as they have in previous cycles. Right now, they hold just a bit over half the total amount invested, but in earlier peaks, like those in 2017 and 2021, new investors were holding over 90% and 80% respectively.

Part of why levels aren’t as high this time around could be because casual or ‘retail’ buyers haven’t been as active in buying Bitcoin over the past few weeks. Interestingly, in the past, these retail buyers tend to be more active at the peak of the market cycle. Since October, casual buyers have cut their Bitcoin holdings by 41,000, but larger investors have increased their holdings by 130,000.

Previous Bitcoin booms have ended with a buying frenzy by retail investors, which isn’t happening this time around. This hints at a change in how the market’s behaving, with big players and institutions now driving up the value of Bitcoin. For instance, those investing through exchange-traded funds (ETFs) spent a record $3.1 billion on Bitcoin in the week leading up to November 22, which is when Bitcoin’s price hit a record $99,655.50.

Bitcoin’s price did go down to about $91,000 on November 26, not quite breaking that $100,000 milestone. Some believe that Bitcoin may need to have a correction of about 30% before it hits a six-figure price.

CryptoQuant’s bull-bear market cycle indicator has been in the bullish zone since the start of November and has been going up since. But it’s still not reached the level it hit in the heated bull phase of March 2024, when Bitcoin hit a record price of over $70,000.

From a realised price valuation perspective, Bitcoin’s top price target right now is at $146,000. This target price has acted as the peak price in previous cycles, such as in April-May 2021. The Price and Loss (P&L) Index hasn’t reached overvalued levels so far in this cycle, suggesting the price can still go up.