30s Summary

On Dec 27, $11.8 billion worth of Bitcoin options are set to expire. Current data shows an advantage for those who chose to buy (call options), with a total value of $7.9 billion. However, those who chose to sell (put options, valued at $3.92 billion) could reduce losses by keeping Bitcoin’s price under $75,000. The outcome depends on the balance between call and put options, and market sentiments. The recent election win for Donald Trump, a Bitcoin-friendly president, has increased investor confidence. Regardless, available data suggests a bullish trend for Bitcoin into early 2026.

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Bitcoin’s market is gearing up for an end-of-year event on Dec 27 where $11.8 billion worth of Bitcoin’s options will expire. Current data suggests that those who opted to buy (known as ‘call’ options) are at a big advantage. However, those who chose to sell (known as ‘put’ options) might be able to reduce their losses by keeping Bitcoin’s price under $75,000.

At the moment, the total value of call options is $7.9 billion, with put options falling behind at $3.92 billion. This is most likely due to Bitcoin’s value going up by 29% since October, making most put options worthless.

The options market leader, Deribit, controls a huge part of the market, 74%, while the Chicago Mercantile Exchange (CME) and Binance both hold 10.3% of options, which is double what OKX has at 4.3%.

Bitcoin’s spot price could be influenced by bullish and bearish sentiments as the expiration date approaches. The final results will depend on the imbalance between call and put options at different price levels.

The recent win of president-elect Donald Trump has bolstered investor confidence greatly. His campaign promised to replace the Chair of the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Gary Gensler, on his first day in office. Furthermore, a record number of pro-crypto lawmakers won their elections in the US House and Senate.

This could mean that a Bitcoin-friendly president might cut down on regulatory hurdles, which might result in approval of a ‘strategic Bitcoin reserve.’ He might even encourage law enforcement to hold on to Bitcoin amassed from criminal activities, instead of liquidating it. The proposed legislation by Senator Cynthia Lummis aims to accumulate up to 1 million Bitcoin over time.

Considering the expiration date in December, the total open interest is at $11.8 billion. However, Bitcoin’s recent surge above $80,000 took bearish investors by surprise, reducing the final amount. Should Bitcoin’s price hover around $88,000 at 8:00 am UTC on Dec. 27, only $96 million of put (sell) options will come into play. The choice to sell at $85,000 becomes irrelevant if Bitcoin’s price is above that when the options expire.

Bitcoin bears, who want to minimize their losses, are aiming for a price drop to under $75,000. On the other side, the bulls are hoping they can drive Bitcoin’s price up to $90,500 by Dec 27. Overall, the existing options market data suggests a strong bullish trend for Bitcoin running into early 2026.
This article’s purpose is to provide general information and should not be considered as legal or investment advice.