30s Summary

Bitcoin’s value may fluctuate significantly following the US presidential elections. Market analysts suggest that if former President Trump wins, Bitcoin could reach between $80,000 to $90,000 due to his support for cryptocurrencies. However, if Vice President Kamala Harris wins, Bitcoin may drop noticeably due to potential stringent crypto regulations. Yet, Bitcoin generally sees an average gain of 46% in November. Additionally, a planned Fed rate cut could drive Bitcoin’s value further. Despite these predictions, Bitcoin’s price recently fell 7.35% in one week, prior to the elections.

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Bitcoin, also known as BTC, is having a tough time just before the US presidential election. It’s a close race between ex-President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris. Here’s what people who know their stuff are saying about Bitcoin with the showdown between Trump and Harris getting close.

If Trump wins, Bitcoin could reach between $80,000 to $90,000. This is according to Bernstein experts. Why? Because Trump has said in public that he supports Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies. In his campaign speeches, he said that the US should lead in the crypto industry.

Trump has suggested a few ways to help Bitcoin, like having a crypto-friendly person run the SEC to relax regulatory pressures, setting up a national Bitcoin reserve to push BTC adoption, and making the US a hotspot for Bitcoin mining.

This prediction is in line with past data showing that Bitcoin’s price usually increases after US presidential elections, especially when it’s close to its halving events (which happen every four years).

History has shown that after the first halving in November 2012, Bitcoin’s price jumped from around $12 to about $1,150 by late 2013. That’s almost a 9500% increase. The same thing happened in 2016 when the price went from about $650 to around $20,000 in December 2017. That’s an increase of over 3000%.

Now if Kamala Harris wins, it’s a different story. Market analyst Miles Deutscher suggests that Bitcoin may experience a significant price drop. This is mainly due to worries that Harris might implement more stringent crypto regulations.

This view lines up with the increasing bets on Polymarket for a Bitcoin price crash in November. The majority are betting on a drop to $65,000.

However, November has been historically profitable for Bitcoin, with an average gain of 46% since 2013. So, some expect similar growth this year. If the price does go up by 46% from the current level, it would reach $104,000, as noted by analyst Lark Davis.

Adding to this optimism is the anticipated Fed rate cut on November 7 which could push Bitcoin further up. The convergence of Bitcoin’s typical good November performance, a possible Fed rate cut, and Trump’s support for crypto are aligning to produce a positive outlook for Bitcoin.

Despite the positive sentiments, the price of Bitcoin has fallen 7.35% from its previous high of $73,600 a week ago. Ahead of the elections, many traders are reducing their exposure, indicated by a $1.1 billion drop in the futures market’s open interest. As always, do your homework before investing. This is not investment advice.