30s Summary

TV host Jim Cramer’s comment about the stock market’s belief in a Kamala Harris presidency has led some investors to interpret it as a hint that Donald Trump might win the 2024 presidential race. This hypothesis is based on the “inverse Cramer” theory which suggests that the opposite of Cramer’s predictions happens. Additionally, Polymarket odds and big investors betting on Trump hint towards possible Trump victory. However, the same could be due to the actions of a single player manipulating the market. As such, it’s concluded that there’s a prevailing expectation of a Trump comeback in 2024 irrespective of the credibility of the “inverse Cramer” theory.

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TV host Jim Cramer might have unintentionally hinted that ex-President Donald Trump could win the next US presidential race in 2024. Jim Cramer examined the recent stock market activities on Monday, November 4, and suggested that folks who put their money in stocks seemed to think Vice President Kamala Harris will win in 2024.

His take on the situation of the market was, “I’m not sure the market’s correct about what a Harris presidency would mean for business, but we know what Wall Street believes it’ll entail.”

Interestingly, some investors have taken Cramer’s forecast about Harris as a clue that Trump might win. This is based off what’s known as the “inverse Cramer” trend. Basically, this quirky theory suggests that whatever Cramer predicts, the opposite outcome becomes reality.

A day before the US elections, Cramer made this prediction. This election, cryptocurrency is a political talking point for the first time ever. In line with the “inverse Cramer” trend, there was once a fund created to profit off of betting against Cramer’s stock advices. However, the fund was shut down just 10 months later because it only attracted $2.4 million in investment and dropped 15% since it started. This shows us that Cramer doesn’t always get it wrong.

There’s some more interesting data that might suggest a Trump victory. The odds at Polymarket turned in favor of Trump on October 4. This was a sharp twist compared to September’s standings. By October 12, Trump had over a 10 point lead according to reports.

Big-time investors, known as Polymarket whales, are still placing huge bets on Trump, even on the day of the election. One whale named “walletmobile” put close to $5 million on Trump, while “zxgngl”, the biggest Trump supporter on Polymarket, withdrew an additional $3.1 million for more Trump bets. This anonymous big spender has over $18.5 million in “Yes” votes for Trump, and might even make a profit of over $528,000 according to Polymarket data.

However, there’s a twist. Four of the top six biggest Trump-voting accounts on Polymarket may actually be controlled by the same guy, “Fredi9999”. He pumped Trump’s odds over 60.2% by buying $20 million in “Yes” shares. But the actions suggest that “zxgngl” who’s placed even more bets isn’t related to the accounts connected to Fredi. They’ve now become the single biggest backer of Trump on Polymarket with over 29.4 million “Yes” shares.

So, whether we believe in the “inverse Cramer” theory or not, it’s clear that many think that Trump might make a comeback in 2024.