30s Summary
Bitcoin recently returned to the $69,000 mark for the first time since June, raising prospects for the currency to revisit its all-time highs. However, some analysts caution that a period of consolidation may precede any further upward movement., Bitcoin’s resurgence has not garnered much interest from mainstream consumers, and concerns are rising over the high levels of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives., The anticipated U.S. Presidential election, jobless claims figures, and potential for a Federal Reserve interest rate cut are critical watchpoints for the short-term outlook., Despite the upward trend, sceptics warn that it is yet to convincingly disrupt lower highs and lower lows.
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Bitcoin has kicked off its third week of October by returning to the $69,000 mark – something it hasn’t seen since June. This has raised expectations for Bitcoin to retest its all-time highs. However, some suggest a period of consolidation may come first.
Jobless claims and the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book are the big macro data news this week. Despite inflation concerns, it seems risk assets are not getting too worried just yet.
Opinions vary though on whether Bitcoin has definitely broken free from its seven-month downward trend. Some analysts are feeling a little uneasy due to the high amounts of leverage in Bitcoin derivatives. And despite all this activity, there’s still not much interest in Bitcoin from mainstream consumers.
Bitcoin’s back on track
At the end of this week, Bitcoin closed at just over $69,000 – the highest it’s been since early June. This has led to a lot of speculation about what could happen next. Some traders predict a bit of a fallback and consolidation, followed by a return of upward momentum.
One Bitcoin trader, CrypNuevo, cautions that there’s a significant liquidation level at $69.3k which could represent the next hurdle for Bitcoin’s price.
Some think there may be a temporary setback for Bitcoin as a retest of the 50-period exponential moving average (EMA) at $66,888 could be on the cards. This being said, if Bitcoin holds its current position and stays at the top part of the channel, further upward movement could be on the way.
Macro signals pointing towards US election
As we approach the U.S. Presidential Election, jobless claims figures will be a key event for crypto and risk-asset traders. Inflation remains a hot topic and some experts argue that stocks have been driving a risk-asset rally in spite of persistent inflationary signals.
Right now, chances of an interest rate cut of 0.25% at the Federal Reserve’s meeting in early November are over 90%, which has led to the rising dollar anticipation. However, many crypto assets have shrugged off these risks and rallied in anticipation of the election.
Breakout or not?
It’s been a big week for Bitcoin, with some analysts suggesting that it’s finally broken out of a seven-month-long downward trend. With a daily candle closing above its channel resistance, things look positive for BTC.
However, there are differing views on whether Bitcoin has permanently put its downward trend behind it. Some analysts remain skeptical, warning that lower highs and lower lows have yet to be convincingly disrupted.
Rising leverage in the spotlights
As Bitcoin has soared to record levels of open interest and $69,000, some market watchers are starting to worry. On-chain analytics site CryptoQuant has noted that leverage has been increasing at an alarming rate. Some worry that the market is increasingly susceptible to impulsive movements, either up or down.
Still not much love from the mainstream
Interesting as all this may be, Bitcoin is not getting much love from the mainstream. Google search data shows that search interest in Bitcoin is at its lowest in a year. It seems the buzz around Bitcoin’s return to $69,000 hasn’t made much of a splash outside the crypto community.
Please remember that all investments and trading activities come with risks. Make sure to do your own research before making investment decisions.
Source: Cointelegraph