30s Summary
Betters on decentralized prediction markets increasingly wager on ex-president Donald Trump winning the next election over Vice President Kamala Harris. According to Polymarket, Trump’s odds have increased by 13 points as of October 15. Cryptocurrency enthusiasts believe Trump is more likely to foster innovation, while concerns exist about Harris introducing heavy regulations. Despite the potential change in leadership, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink believes Bitcoin will remain unaffected by global politics. Betting volume saw a 564% rise in Q3 to $3.1 billion across the three leading prediction markets.
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Ex-president Donald Trump seems to be gaining the lead over Vice President Kamala Harris. There are more folks wagering on him winning the next election in the decentralized prediction markets.
According to Polymarket, one of the big prediction markets, Trump’s odds of winning the American presidency went ahead of Harris’s by 13 points, come October 15. Trump took the lead on October 4, which is a big swing from the previous month. By October 12, he had moved ahead by over 10 points.
Even Tesla bigwig Elon Musk seems to think these decentralized prediction markets could predict the election outcome better than regular polls, and he’s pretty chummy with Trump these days.
As far as the cryptocurrency arena is concerned, folks think Trump is more likely to push innovation, whereas they fear Harris might pump the brakes on blockchain innovation by bringing in some hefty rules.
But whether it’s Trump or Harris in the White House, Larry Fink, the CEO of BlackRock (biggest asset management company globally), reckons Bitcoin isn’t going to be affected much. He says Bitcoin is a unique asset that won’t be swayed by global politics.
Because the US election is in the wings, prediction markets saw a massive surge in betting volume – a whopping 564% rise in Q3 to $3.1 billion across the three largest markets.
The betting market Polymarket has been leading the pack with a market share of over 99%, with nearly half its volume this year driven by the US presidential elections poll.
Source: Cointelegraph