30s Summary

The US Presidential elections’ outcome could spark Bitcoin (BTC) price swings of between $6,000 and $8,000, according to Amberdata’s Greg Magadini. Ethereum’s Ether is also expected to experience a significant price swing. The figures are based on the forward annual volatility factored into forthcoming November options trades on Deribit. This comes at the BTC is reeling from a price drop due to weaker polling for Donald Trump. The price of Ethereum’s Ether, traditionally more volatile than BTC, could swing by between 9.35% to 10.19%, Derive predicts.

Full Article

The U.S. Presidential race is having an effect on the world in more ways than one. With the race being tight, Greg Magadini from Amberdata estimates that Bitcoin (BTC) could fluctuate between $6,000 to $8,000 as a result. Traders of Ethereum’s Ether are also preparing for a considerable price swing. Depending on the election’s outcome, markets could experience significant volatility in the near future.

These projections are based on the 112% forward annual volatility derived from the upcoming November options trading on Deribit. This suggests that there could be a $4,000 price fluctuation in either direction. Bitcoin last experienced a comparable price swing in early August due to broad-based risk aversion which dropped Bitcoin down to $50,000.

The predicted 1.5-sigma volatility comes from the fact that the latest reports suggest that the race is close, particularly within swing states. The 50-50 odds mean that no matter who wins, the outcome is unlikely to surprise markets. However, this also means that minimal price action is not likely either, as traders will be unable to price the election outcome in advance.

Bitcoin traders are re-imagining higher prices while the spot price is decreasing due to weaker polling for Trump, according to Joshua Lim, co-founder of crypto derivatives trading firm and liquidity provider Arbelos Markets. The volatility curve is pricing a 7%-8% move around critical events of the week, mainly Thursday’s Fed rate decision and the expected U.S. election outcome on Friday.

Ethereum’s Ether, the world’s second-largest cryptocurrency by market value, has historically been more volatile than BTC. This is expected to remain the same with this election. Onchain options listed on the decentralized exchange Derive predict a 68% chance of a 9.35% to 10.19% price swing for ETH, with BTC expected to see volatility of 8.97% to 9.85%.