30s Summary

Prediction market platform, Kalshi, has launched several contracts allowing bets on US political outcomes such as presidential election results, pioneering binary options in the US. Since its October 7th launch, it accrued $14m in bets on the presidential election’s outcome. Despite its success, Kalshi still lags behind global prediction market, Polymarket, which handled around $2bn in bets on the US presidential race. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has raised concerns over potential risks to election integrity, but advocates posit that markets such as these could offer a more accurate depiction of public opinion than conventional polls.

Full Article

Since its court win in September, Kalshi, a prediction market, has launched more than a dozen contracts centered on US political outcomes. Just imagine being able to bet on everything from who will win the US presidential election to who is going to grab the next Senate seat or if the New York City Mayor will step down. Pretty wild, right?

These betting contracts are called binary options, and they’re the first ones in the US to allow bets on election results. Since their launch on October 7th, the main question “Who will win the Presidential election?” has raked in $14 million in total bets.

Now, Kalshi is available to the good ol’ American Joe, but it still trails behind Polymarket, a more global prediction market. Polymarket has handled nearly $2 billion in bets over the US presidential race.

In 2020, Polymarket quickly became a go-to place for betting on the US election results. Kalshi, however, had to stand up to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), a US regulator, in court as they were trying to prevent Kalshi from listing their political betting contracts. After a court victory in September and another one in October, Kalshi emerged victorious.

The CFTC argues platforms like Kalshi could risk election integrity. But industry experts think these markets might actually give a better real-time snapshot of public sentiment than traditional polls.

Interestingly, in August, Bloomberg LP integrated Polymarket’s election odds data into its Terminal, the world’s most widely used financial data platform.

As we’re heading into the election, Kalshi is predicting a 55% chance for Republican Donald Trump to win versus a 45% chance for Democrat Kamala Harris. Over at Polymarket, bettors are more confident in Trump with a 58% chance against a less than 41% chance for Harris. They even have odds on an outsider swooping in and taking the presidency in November. Now, that’s a long shot bet to take!

Source: Cointelegraph