30s Summary
Kalshi, a prediction marketplace, launched new political betting markets ahead of the U.S. presidential elections, including the first “winner-take-all” bets in the country. Over two dozen contracts related to elections have been added since Halloween. The market has seen $144 million in total bets on the outcome of the presidential race. Despite criticism that these markets could disrupt election integrity, some think they provide a more accurate picture of public sentiment than traditional polls.
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Guess what? Kalshi, the prediction marketplace, is gearing up just in time for the US presidential elections on November 5. They’ve introduced a bunch of new political betting markets, so you can bet on anything from the results of an Ohio referendum to which state will be the last one to have its votes counted.
Since Halloween, Kalshi has added over two dozen contracts, most of them related to the US elections. And here’s the cool part – they’re the first ones in the US to offer these “winner-take-all” bets on election outcomes, including the race between Vice President Kamala Harris and Donald Trump.
As of November 1, Kalshi’s main market – “Who will win the Presidential election?” – has seen a huge $144 million in total bets since it was listed on October 7. In the beginning, the odds were heavily in favor of Trump, but things are getting interesting now. According to Kalshi, Trump has a 56% chance of winning the presidency, while Harris stands at 44%.
Kalshi sure has some catching up to do with Polymarket though – another prediction market that is based on the Polygon network. Almost $2.9 billion has been placed on the November presidential election on Polymarket.
From October 28, Kalshi began accepting deposits in USD Coin (USDC), a common stablecoin, to attract more tech-savvy users. And guess who’s joined the party? Robinhood, the cryptocurrency and stock trading platform, introduced contracts for users to bet on the presidential election on October 28.
Some folks aren’t happy with these election prediction markets like Kalshi, claiming they could disrupt the integrity of the elections. But when you look at it from a different perspective, they could actually provide a more accurate picture of public sentiment than traditional polls. Fascinating, isn’t it?