30s Summary

Historically, Bitcoin’s value has increased significantly after U.S. elections. In 2012 and 2016, the value soared by 12,000% and 3,600% respectively, a year after the elections. In 2020, during the Covid-19 pandemic, it rose by 478%. If this pattern continues, Bitcoin may reach $103,500 by late 2025. However, Bitcoin’s current cycle post-halving reflects a mere 7% increase, suggesting a diminishing return trend.

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If history is any indication, Bitcoin could go beyond $100,000 after the upcoming U.S. elections. Interestingly, compared to previous cycles (studied from either the cycle low or since “the halving”), Bitcoin these days is actually undervalued.

So far, all U.S. elections have acted as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin. Back in 2012, Bitcoin was worth around $11 during the November elections. A year later, Bitcoin skyrocketed by almost 12,000% and reached over $1,100.

Fast forward to 2016. In early November, Bitcoin was approximately $700. By December 2017, it had soared to around $18,000, showing an appreciation of about 3,600%.

In the following election cycle of 2020, that coincided with the Covid-19 pandemic, Bitcoin climbed 478% to hit roughly $69,000 just over a year later. It even reached a record high of over $73,000 in March 2024.

If we follow this trend, Bitcoin’s value might increase by about 47.8% post-election, which then leads to Bitcoin touching upon $103,500 by late 2025.

However, it’s worth noting Bitcoin these days has the worst-performing cycle from the halving, with Bitcoin currently sitting just 7% higher than when the 50% cut happened. This points towards the theory of diminishing returns.