30s Summary

According to Polymarket, betting fans think that participants of the January 6th protest are more likely to be pardoned than Ross Ulbricht by Trump when he returns for a second term. The betting market forecasts an 86% pardon chance for the protesters and a 78% chance for Ulbricht. Trump has shown public sympathy for the protesters and promised to commute Ulbricht’s sentence and pardon the defendants if re-elected, with Ulbricht’s harsh sentence often being seen as excessive. What the bettors also predict is a 14% chance of Trump excusing himself and a 6% chance he pardons Sam Bankman-Fried.

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According to betting fans at Polymarket, participants in the January 6th demonstration are slightly more likely to be pardoned than Silk Road founder Ross Ulbricht if Trump returns for a second term in the White House. The betting market predicts an 86% chance for a pardon for the January 6th protesters and a 78% chance for Ulbricht.

Trump has publicly shown sympathy towards the January 6th protesters, declaring them as patriots caught in a “two systems of justice” scenario that he thinks unfairly targets his supporters. He has described January 6th as a “day of love”, with his supporters only reacting to what he believes was a “rigged” election.

During his campaign, Trump made a promise to commute Ross Ulbricht’s sentence to time served (which isn’t the same as a pardon) and to pardon the January 6th defendants if he was voted back in. He presented these pledges as part of his opposition to governmental overreach and support for individual freedoms.

At the Libertarian National Convention, Trump’s vow to free Ross Ulbricht, who received a life sentence for creating Silk Road, was met with strong approval from the audience. Although Trump didn’t clarify why he believes Ulbricht should be released, many perceive Ulbricht’s double-life sentence with no option for parole as severe punishment for a non-violent crime.

Ulbricht’s mom is leading a campaign to demand his release, stating that his punishment could be deemed cruel and unusual under the Eighth Amendment. She highlights that other Silk Road associates have received more lenient sentences. It’s crucial to mention that Trump hasn’t promised a pardon for Ulbricht like he did with the January 6th protesters. A pardon and a commute would both result in Ulbricht’s release, but if Trump follows through with the latter, it may lead to a dispute due to inconsistencies in the language.

Aside from these two groups, bettors predict a 14% chance that Trump pardons himself, and a 6% chance he pardons Sam Bankman-Fried.