30s Summary

Around $4 billion has been wagered on the US presidential election across major prediction markets. Polymarket is the largest, with over $3.3 billion bet on the election, even though it does not operate in the US. New US betting platforms Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers, launched in October, have collectively seen $500 million in betting turnover. Betting involves buying contracts where pay-out depends on the political result. Kalshi began offering contracts for election outcomes following a court victory. However, recent investigations into Polymarket alleged 30% of its bets are wash trading, a strategy used to inflate volume.

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Loads of people are getting in on the action for the US presidential election, with nearly $4 billion being placed in bets across major prediction markets as everyone poured out to vote on Nov. 5.

Polymarket, even though it’s not allowed to operate in the US, has been the go-to for political betting, seeing more than $3.3 billion of action on the presidential race.

However, new kids on the block in the US, including Kalshi, Robinhood, and Interactive Brokers, which all launched in October, are rapidly growing in popularity. Combined, they’re nearing $500 million in betting turnover related to the presidential election.

On the top betting platforms, Donald Trump, the Republican candidate, is favored over Harris. As of Nov. 5, Polymarket gave Trump nearly 62% probability of winning, whereas Kalshi and Interactive Brokers had him at around 58%.

Betting on political events invites users to buy contracts where the payout depends on the political outcome. They can bet on all sorts of things from the presidential race to Senate campaigns, cabinet appointments, and even the potential resignation of New York City Mayor Eric Adams. Some of the biggest draws are bets on the popular vote and the winning candidate’s margin of victory. Altogether, these particular types of bets have gone close to $1 billion across different platforms.

Kalshi started offering contracts to bet on the US election outcomes on Oct. 7, after a big win in court the previous month. This was a first for a US prediction market and opened the door for others to try their luck.

Since then, lots of platforms have been getting in on the action. On Oct. 28, Robinhood, the crypto and stock trading platform, brought in their own contracts for some users to gamble on the presidential election result. They have already seen around $200 million of bets placed on the presidential race. Interactive Brokers, who launched their own betting markets in October, have seen about $50 million in volume.

On that same day, Kalshi began to accept deposits in USD Coin, a popular stable cryptocurrency. On Nov. 5, it added deposits from the blockchain network Polygon.

However, it’s not all smooth sailing. Polymarket faced backlash in October after multiple investigations alleged that around 30% of its US presidential election bets were what’s known as wash trading – basically a sneaky way to falsely boost volume. Meanwhile, five big-time Polymarket gamblers apparently bought more than half of the shares betting on a Trump win.

Winning bettors on Polymarket might have to wait until Jan. 20, 2025, for their payouts, unless the Associated Press, Fox and NBC all agree on a clear winner.

In September, Kalshi defeated the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission in court over the right to list political event contracts. The commission argued that prediction markets like Kalshi challenge the integrity of elections. However, industry insiders argue that they often gauge public sentiment more accurately than polls. Just food for thought.