30s Summary

Bitcoin reached a new personal best of over $73,800 on November 6. This rise is believed to be tied to the US elections, with Bitcoin value rising in step with increases in Trump’s projected victory odds. Despite this impressive performance, Bitcoin’s value remains volatile, reflected through the Bitcoin ETF market experiencing high sales, while the options market positions themselves with protective measures against potential value drop.

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On Nov. 6, Bitcoin created a new personal best by climbing past $73,800. Everyone’s on edge waiting for the results of the US election to come out.

At the start of the day in New York, Bitcoin proved it was on a roll, with an incredible 3% rise, reaching an impressive high of $70,577. The atmosphere surrounding the US election appears to be giving the crypto market a real jolt.

For most of 2024, lots of people have been saying that Bitcoin could really reach new heights if Donald Trump clinches the election. Over the year, both main parties have been changing their stances on cryptocurrency rules.

On Nov. 5, Bitcoin guru Tuur Demeester floated the idea that Bitcoin’s value might be linked to positive election news about Trump.

“Bitcoin’s price seems to be tied to the US elections. Whenever Trump is having a good day, Bitcoin’s value shoots up,” he tweeted.

Bitcoin’s see-saw ride has something to do with the fluctuating probabilities of Trump’s win projected by Polymarket, an online prediction market. On Nov. 5, Bitcoin price went above $70,000 when Trump’s chances of victory passed 60%, with Harris’ going below 39%.

Despite its record-breaking run, Bitcoin’s value is anything but steady and this is reflected in the market’s anticipation of future activity.

On Nov. 4, the Bitcoin ETF market saw an unusual day of high selling, with outflows totalling $541.1 million. As such, organisations such as Fidelity, ArkInvest, Bitwise, Grayscale and GBTC all saw net sales. At the same time, BlackRock’s IBIT had inflows of about $38.3 million.

In the Bitcoin options market, they’ve been putting a number of protective measures in place–something which Tony Stewart, founder of Pelion Capital, has been talking about extensively.

To shed some light on Stewart’s observations, options expert Marcel Pechman translates: “Investors are generally more optimistic, especially for Nov. 7, Nov. 15, and Nov. 29. Most folks are banking on prices rising to $72,000 to $75,000 or more. The noticeable $64,000 puts purchase hints at some nervousness and market makers could be hit harder if Bitcoin’s value drops, as they sold puts at lower prices.”

Just a word of advice that this piece isn’t trying to tell you how to invest or trade. All decisions with respect to trading or investment have risks, so it’s important you thoroughly research anything you’re planning on doing.