30s Summary

Bitcoin (BTC) is facing difficulties staying above the $90,000 mark, according to signals from the options market. Data tracked by cryptocurrency financial platform BloFin indicates a likelihood of BTC trading at lower prices in the future. This ‘left shift’ in implied probability distribution mirrors a similar event witnessed before Trump media shares experienced a recent price drop. Despite this, most market participants continue to wager on BTC exceeding the $100,000 mark.

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Bitcoins, or BTCs, are struggling to stay above the $90,000 mark. What’s interesting is that we see indications of this in the options market tied to the cryptocurrency. This pattern was observed before Trump media shares experienced a recent drop in prices.

What we’re referring to here is the implied probability distribution. This provides an idea of future price expectations for an asset, like Bitcoins. It’s gleaned from options prices at various strike prices and expiration dates. It’s essentially a way of gauging what traders think the likelihood is of an asset reaching different price levels.

According to data tracked by BloFin, a cryptocurrency financial platform, we’re now witnessing a “left shift” in implied probability distribution for Bitcoins. In other words, traders seem to have a higher probability of BTC trading at lower prices ahead.

Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, noted that the current indications suggest that traders believe BTC and altcoins prices are on the higher end right now and more pullbacks might be coming. Ardern also mentioned that they observed a similar “left shift” in the DJT options market, right before the recent price slide.

DJT shares experienced a downfall to $27 from a high of $54 at the end of October, per TradingView data. This was attributed to the packaged expectation of Donald Trump’s win in the U.S. elections held on November 5.

After Trump’s expected victory, BTCs surged by over $20,000, hitting $93,000 at one point. As of now, the cryptocurrency is trading at $88,100.

Given the federal reserve’s recent comments about an unlikely cut in rates, the price pullback implied by the volatility distribution seems viable. Despite this, most market participants continue to bet on the price of BTC crossing the $100,000 mark.