30s Summary

Bitcoin’s value may drop to $70,000 due to its pattern of matching global short-term cash and bank deposit supply, with a 70-day delay, according to Joe Consorti, a Bitcoin analyst. Prior bull markets have shown a similar pattern, typically indicating rising inflation and prompting people to invest in riskier assets like Bitcoin. However, this pattern may trigger a 25% fall in Bitcoin’s value. Other experts, including David Quintieri and Jim Check, hold different views on Bitcoin’s behavior, citing its unpredictability and the strengthening of the dollar. Crypto analyst Sam KB has observed an unusual divergence between Bitcoin’s rally and the ‘M2’ cash supply.

Full Article

If Bitcoin keeps up with its usual pattern with the worldwide supply of cash and bank deposits, it might slip towards $70,000, says expert analyst. “This pattern has been surprisingly bang on, so far,” shares Joe Consorti, a Bitcoin analyst and head of growth at Theya Bitcoin.

But Bitcoin might have to face a little stumble before it hits $100,000. “We’ve got to see if Bitcoin follows this original pattern or if it finds a base somewhere before falling,” adds Consorti.

Through his earlier posts, Consorti has noted that Bitcoin has a pattern of walking in step with the global supply of short-term cash and bank deposits, with about a “70-day delay”. This pattern has been seen from September 2023 onwards. Previous Bitcoin bull markets have shown a similar pattern with the growth of this cash supply.

At times when this cash supply grows, it often indicates that inflation is on the rise. That’s when folks tend to look for more risky stuff to invest in, like Bitcoin, as a cover against inflation.

Now this might get a bit scary, warns Consorti, but if this pattern goes on, Bitcoin could see a 20-25% fall.

Yet, not all experts are agreeing with Consorti’s forecast. David Quintieri, a market commentator, believes that “Bitcoin is too unpredictable to track it against anything”. He adds, “you could do this with the stock market, and that would seem more practical.”

While all this is going on, Jim Check, lead analyst at Glassnode, points out that the fall in the ‘M2’ supply of cash could be because of the dollar getting stronger. He mentioned that this is effectively bringing down the M2 cash supply of the rest of the world.

Crypto enthusiast Sam KB has also been keeping an eye on things. He notices that “every time M2 hits a high, so does Bitcoin. But not this time.” He’s curious as to why Bitcoin is rallying when M2 is nearly at its lowest point in this cycle.

Meanwhile, some analysts are cautioning that if President-elect Donald Trump’s plan to slap tariffs on imported goods goes through, the US dollar could get stronger, which could impact riskier investments like Bitcoin.

Finally, on Nov. 5, Scott Bessent, a hedge fund manager, shared during a Bloomberg interview that “Tariffs cause a stronger dollar,” and a weaker dollar at a time of tariffs is not normal.

As of when this was written, Bitcoin is going for $91,988, only a few days after narrowly missing the much-anticipated $100,000 price point. Bitcoin reached its highest so far, at $99,571, on Nov. 23.

Before putting your money in, remember that every investment and trading move involves risk, and it’s always wisest to do your own research first.