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Donald Trump is leading Kamala Harris in the 2024 Presidential predictions on Polymarket. However, Polymarket won’t declare a winner until Inauguration Day, unless The Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all confirm the same winner. Payouts begin only after a clear winner is declared. Polymarket refers to a separate prediction market that acknowledges the newly inaugurated president. The platform also mentions that the 2024 Presidential Election could conclude as early as November 6th if all three media outlets agree on the winner.

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So, here’s the deal: Donald Trump is currently ahead of Kamala Harris in the 2024 presidential predictions on Polymarket, but regardless of who wins the election, don’t expect your pocket to be lined promptly. You may not see any money until January 20th, 2025, unless three big names – The Associated Press, Fox, and NBC – all announce the same winner.

According to Polymarket’s 2024 Presidential Election rules, a clear winner needs to be declared before payouts can start happening. But as we all know, figuring out the winner of a U.S. presidential election isn’t exactly a quick process. It can take anything from a couple of days to a few months before a final result is reached.

In fact, Polymarket made a point by saying, on their webpage, that they won’t declare a winner before the Inauguration Day unless all media outlets are singing the same winner tune.

To give you a clear idea, they say: “This Presidential market resolves when the Associated Press, Fox, and NBC all call the election for the same candidate. If the stars don’t align, and that doesn’t happen, the market will stay open until inauguration day and we’ll see who gets inaugurated.”

Polymarket also hinted at a separate prediction market that resolves when the president gets inaugurated. However, the 2024 Presidential Election could wrap up as soon as November 6th, right after the final votes are counted, only if the AP, Fox, and NBC all agree on the winner.

Now, about U.S. elections, the time taken to declare the winner varies. It can happen within just a few hours or people may have to wait weeks before finally finding out who gets to run the country.

These days, the winner is usually declared within a few days. However, the Bush vs. Gore battle in 2000 is a somewhat recent example of a time this rule was broken, with it taking 35 days and a Supreme Court intervention before Gore finally gave up.

Given the current political vibe, it seems like everyone—analysts, electoral officers in each state—is gearing up for surprising turns. If a deadlock happens, expect a flurry of lawsuits, recounts, and state-based protocols. If by some twist of fate, Trump and Harris end up in an electoral vote tie, oh boy, brace yourselves. The results could take even longer.

This may sound wild and unlikely, but it’s not impossible. Thomas Jefferson and Aaron Burr, in the third presidential election, each received 72 electoral votes. The election was in October 1800, but it wasn’t until late February 1801 that Congress broke the tie. Two more fun facts: Burr became Jefferson’s vice president because of an old US law, and yes, that law has since been updated.